A new case for faster European defense independence
A group of prominent German defense investors, analysts and industry figures argues that Europe can move much closer to military autonomy without waiting decades. In a paper published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the authors say a high degree of European independence in defense and security is within reach if governments invest around €50 billion a year over the next decade.
The paper, dubbed Sparta 2.0, identifies ten central capability gaps that Europe would need to fill to be able to act more autonomously without U.S. military assistance. Among the areas cited are command and control, autonomous systems and deep strike. According to the authors, substantially greater independent capacity could be built within three to five years, while far-reaching autonomy could be achieved within five to 10 years if it becomes a clear political priority.
The scale of the proposal
The figures in the paper are large, but they are framed as manageable relative to Europe’s broader defense plans. The authors estimate that reaching defense autonomy would require about €150 billion to €200 billion by 2030 and roughly €500 billion over the next decade. They argue that this level of spending corresponds to about 10% of total European defense expenditure and around 0.25% of GDP over that period.
That framing is politically important. Rather than calling for an entirely new spending architecture, the paper suggests that currently planned increases in defense budgets could finance a substantial portion of the effort if resources are directed toward the right gaps. In other words, the argument is not only that autonomy is strategically necessary, but that it is financially achievable.
