Private Spacecraft Will Land on Asteroid Apophis in 2029

What Makes Apophis Scientifically Extraordinary

Even before the first spacecraft arrives, Apophis has already contributed to science. Ground-based observations have allowed astronomers to constrain its composition, likely a chondrite-type stony asteroid, measure its spin rate, and model the Yarkovsky effect — the subtle push of thermal radiation that causes small asteroids to drift from their predicted trajectories over time.

The 2029 flyby will allow scientists to observe something that has never been directly measured: the tidal deformation of an asteroid under the gravitational influence of a planet. At its closest approach, Apophis will experience tidal forces significant enough to potentially cause landslides, reshape the surface regolith, and possibly crack the interior. These are not theoretical concerns — radar observations suggest Apophis may have a rubble-pile structure, an aggregate of smaller rocks loosely bound by gravity rather than a monolithic solid, making it especially susceptible to tidal reshaping.

The data gathered by orbiting and landed spacecraft during the flyby could answer fundamental questions about how rubble-pile asteroids form, evolve, and respond to gravitational perturbations. This matters not just for scientific curiosity but for planetary defense: understanding how asteroids respond to close encounters helps engineers model how to deflect or disrupt an asteroid that actually poses an impact threat.

The Planetary Defense Dimension

Apophis itself poses no impact threat for at least the next century according to current models. But the massive campaign of observations and missions converging on its 2029 flyby reflects how seriously the planetary defense community now takes near-Earth objects — and how much the field has matured since the chaotic days of the 2004 panic.

NASA's DART mission successfully deflected asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, demonstrating for the first time that kinetic impactors can meaningfully alter an asteroid's orbit. ESA's Hera mission, launched in 2024, is now surveying the aftermath of that impact in detail. Apophis 2029 represents a different kind of test: an opportunity to observe a large asteroid up close under the influence of natural gravitational forces, providing data that no laboratory or small-scale mission can replicate.

• Apophis will be visible to the naked eye during its April 2029 flyby — the first such event in modern history
• At least three missions are targeting the encounter: NASA's OSIRIS-APEX, ESA's Ramses, and at least one private lander
• Tidal deformation during the flyby may reshape the asteroid's surface and reveal its internal structure

For the billions of people who will be able to look up and see Apophis crossing the sky — roughly the angular size of a moving star — it will be a reminder that the solar system is dynamic, that space is not empty, and that the line between safe and catastrophic is thinner than comfortable assumptions suggest.

This article is based on reporting by New Scientist. Read the original article.