#prediction-markets

联邦检方称，一名陆军特种部队一级军士长利用与抓捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗有关的机密信息，在 Polymarket 上获利超过40万美元，官员称这可能是美国首起预言市场内幕交易案件。

检察官称，一名与马杜罗抓捕行动有关的美国士兵使用机密政府信息，在预测市场上下注，获利超过40万美元。

一项临时限制令已暂停亚利桑那州针对预测市场公司 Kalshi 的刑事案件，并将围绕各州是否可以起诉自称受联邦监管企业的更广泛争议进一步升级。

A surge in activity on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has collided with a basic problem: millions of users may owe taxes on winnings, but there is still no clear federal playbook for how to report them.

美国一家上诉法院裁定，Kalshi 的体育相关事件合约属于联邦商品监管范围，这限制了各州将其视为普通体育博彩的能力。

A bipartisan Senate proposal would bar public officials from placing prediction-market bets using nonpublic information, targeting a growing ethics and security gap around Polymarket and Kalshi.

Polymarket 将华盛顿一家酒吧临时改造成“Situation Room”，凸显了预测市场如何试图从小众线上社区走向更可见的政治与文化空间。

在美国和以色列对伊朗的打击导致地区冲突升级后，Polymarket和Kalshi等平台允许用户对2026年核武器使用的可能性进行投注，引发了关于灾难金融化的紧迫伦理和监管问题。

Dozens of AI-powered intelligence dashboards tracking the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have emerged, raising questions about the gamification of war and the reliability of open-source intelligence.

Kalshi and Polymarket are allowing users to bet millions on geopolitical events including the Iran conflict, raising ethical questions about profiting from war and death.