Post-Treaty Nuclear Posture Shift

For the first time in decades, the United States nuclear arsenal is operating without the constraints of a bilateral arms control treaty. The New START agreement between Washington and Moscow expired recently without a replacement, and the US Air Force is signaling that it is ready to take advantage of the newfound flexibility. Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) has confirmed that it maintains the capability and training to restore nuclear armament to all 76 B-52H bombers and equip Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, should the President direct such a move.

The implications are significant. Under New START, the United States and Russia each faced hard caps on deployed strategic missiles, bombers, nuclear warheads, and launchers. Those constraints shaped force structure decisions for over a decade, including the deliberate de-nuclearization of 30 B-52H bombers and the downloading of Minuteman IIIs from their original multi-warhead configuration to a single warhead per missile.

Returning to a Multi-Warhead ICBM Force

The United States currently fields 400 Minuteman III missiles in silos spread across five states. Each carries a single W78 or W87 nuclear warhead. When the LGM-30G first entered service in 1970, however, each missile carried three independently targetable warheads -- a configuration known as MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle). The now-retired LGM-118A Peacekeeper could carry up to 11 warheads simultaneously.

Retired General Anthony Cotton, former head of US Strategic Command, stated in 2024 that the military needed to "take serious consideration in seeing what uploading and re-MIRVing the ICBM looks like." With New START's constraints lifted, that consideration has moved from theoretical to operational. An AFGSC spokesperson confirmed the command "maintains the capability and training to MIRV the Minuteman III ICBM force" if ordered. The W78 warhead carries a reported yield of approximately 335 kilotons, while the W87 delivers at least 300 kilotons with the potential to be modified upward to 475 kilotons.