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All articles tagged with "prediction-markets"

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© 2026 Developments Today. All rights reserved.

A Kalshi advertisement at a bus stop displays the text, "We operate under US law because Kalshi is a federally regulated US exchange."

Appeals Court Says Kalshi Sports Contracts Count as Gambling in Nevada

The 9th Circuit ruled Nevada can enforce its gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports-event contracts.
Judges rejected Kalshi’s claim that federal commodities law gives the CFTC exclusive authority.
The decision conflicts with a 3rd Circuit ruling, increasing the odds of Supreme Court review.

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DT Editorial Team·Aug 29, 2026·via arstechnica.com

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France doubles down on restricting access to Polymarket - Engadget

France orders ISPs to block Polymarket access

France’s gambling regulator ordered ISPs to block Polymarket.
The move follows a November 2024 geoblock on transactions from French residents.
Authorities cited substantial June traffic from France as evidence earlier restrictions were insufficient.

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DT Editorial Team·Jul 19, 2026·via engadget.com

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Polymarket has reportedly been paying creators to post fake betting videos - Engadget

Polymarket Faces Scrutiny Over Alleged Fake Betting Videos

A reported Wall Street Journal investigation reviewed 1,105 TikTok videos tied to Polymarket promotions.
Many videos that appeared to show live bets reportedly used dummy sites instead of the actual Polymarket platform.
The claims come as US states and European regulators continue examining prediction markets.

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DT Editorial Team·Jun 22, 2026·via engadget.com

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Kalshi Asks Influencers to Take Down Sponsored Conspiracy Posts About the LA Election

Kalshi scrubs sponsored election posts after LA count backlash

Kalshi asked for sponsored influencer posts about the LA election count to be removed.
The controversy centered on conspiracy framing around California's slow ballot counting.
The incident raises credibility questions for prediction-market promotion in political events.

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DT Editorial Team·Jun 6, 2026·via gizmodo.com

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An advertisement at a bus stop says, "Kalshi rule #2: We don't do death markets," and that "Kalshi is a federally regulated US exchange."

Minnesota’s Prediction Market Ban Triggers Federal Lawsuit Before It Takes Effect

Minnesota enacted a law making prediction market creation, operation or advertising a felony.
The CFTC sued to block the law before its August 1 effective date.
Federal regulators argue Congress gave the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over such markets.
Minnesota officials say prediction markets are harmful and addictive.

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DT Editorial Team·May 21, 2026·via arstechnica.com

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US Soldier Accused of Using Classified Maduro Operation Details to Profit on Polymarket

Prosecutors say Gannon Ken Van Dyke made $409,881 from 13 Polymarket bets tied to Nicolás Maduro.
The bets were allegedly placed while Van Dyke had classified knowledge of the planned operation.
Authorities say he withdrew funds on the day Maduro was captured and routed them through crypto.
The case adds pressure on prediction markets already facing insider-trading concerns.

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DT Editorial Team·Apr 24, 2026·via engadget.com

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US Special Forces Soldier Arrested for Polymarket Bets on Maduro Raid

US soldier accused of using classified Maduro raid intelligence to profit on Polymarket

The Justice Department says the accused soldier made more than $400,000 using classified information.
Authorities describe it as the first US insider-trading prosecution tied to a prediction market.
The case intensifies scrutiny of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

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DT Editorial Team·Apr 24, 2026·via wired.com

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Maduro in handcuffs in front of a helicopter on January 5th

Federal prosecutors accuse U.S. soldier of using classified knowledge to profit from Maduro prediction market bets

A U.S. soldier has been charged over prediction market bets tied to the Maduro operation.
Prosecutors say he used confidential information and later tried to hide the activity.
The case could increase pressure on event-market oversight and compliance.

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DT Editorial Team·Apr 24, 2026·via theverge.com

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Kalshi wins temporary pause in Arizona criminal case | TechCrunch

Court Order Temporarily Halts Arizona’s Criminal Case Against Kalshi

A temporary restraining order has stopped Arizona from pursuing its criminal case against Kalshi for now.
The CFTC says the dispute is about states using criminal law against a company it views as operating under federal law.
The case could shape how prediction markets are treated across multiple U.S. states.

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DT Editorial Team·Apr 12, 2026·via techcrunch.com

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Nobody Knows How to File Taxes on Prediction Market Wins

Prediction Markets Hit Tax Season Before Tax Rules Arrive

The IRS has not issued clear guidance for taxing prediction market gains and losses.
Tax professionals are using different frameworks, including derivatives, gambling, and regular income treatment.
Rising participation means the uncertainty now affects a broad base of users, not just specialists.

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DT Editorial Team·Apr 7, 2026·via wired.com

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An advertisement at a bus stop says, "Kalshi rule #2: We don't do death markets," and that "Kalshi is a federally regulated US exchange."

Federal Appeals Court Shields Sports Prediction Markets From New Jersey Gambling Law

The 3rd Circuit upheld an injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing state gambling law against Kalshi.
The majority said Kalshi's sports-related event contracts are swaps traded on a CFTC-licensed market.
A dissent argued the products look virtually the same as ordinary online sportsbook wagers.

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DT Editorial Team·Apr 7, 2026·via arstechnica.com

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Law Seeks to Ban Public Officials From Making Polymarket Bets on Upcoming Bloodshed, Because Apparently We Live in a Complete Dystopia

Congress Moves to Stop Public Officials From Trading on Inside Knowledge in Prediction Markets

A bipartisan Senate proposal would ban public officials from betting on prediction markets using nonpublic information.
Covered individuals would include lawmakers, the president, staffers, and agency employees.
Supporters say the issue is both an ethics risk and an operational-security risk.

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DT Editorial Team·Mar 31, 2026·via futurism.com

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Image of group of people sitting between a blue globe and a TV screen showing a mixture of sports and current events.

How Prediction Markets Tried to Build a Physical Presence in Washington

Polymarket rebranded a DC bar as a temporary ‘Situation Room’ filled with market and news screens.
The pop-up showcased bets spanning elections, Eurovision and even religious prophecy.
The event reflected an effort to turn prediction markets into a visible political-media culture.

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DT Editorial Team·Mar 30, 2026·via arstechnica.com

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How online prediction markets got people betting on nuclear war

Prediction Markets Turn Nuclear War Into a Betting Game

Polymarket hosted a nuclear weapon detonation betting market during the Iran conflict before deleting it amid controversy
Prediction market defenders argue these contracts provide valuable probability estimates for emergency planners and policymakers
Critics say catastrophe markets create perverse incentives and normalize profiting from geopolitical disasters

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DT Editorial Team·Mar 18, 2026·4 min read·via mashable.com

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How AI is turning the Iran conflict into theater

AI Dashboards Turn the Iran Conflict Into a Spectator Sport

Dozens of AI-built dashboards track Iran conflict in real-time
Many platforms were 'vibe-coded' in days using AI tools
Prediction markets let users bet on military outcomes
Professional analysts warn amateur OSINT could degrade public understanding

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DT Editorial Team·Mar 10, 2026·4 min read·via technologyreview.com

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With Iran War, Kalshi and Polymarket Bet That the Depravity Economy Has No Bottom

Prediction Markets Profit From War as Gambling Expands

Over $54 million was wagered on Kalshi about Iran's Supreme Leader being removed from power
Prediction market companies claim rules prevent direct profit from death events
Regulatory frameworks have not kept pace with gambling expansion into geopolitical events

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DT Editorial Team·Mar 9, 2026·5 min read·via 404media.co

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