#prediction-markets

Kalshi moved to remove sponsored influencer posts tied to conspiracy-laden reactions to the Los Angeles mayoral count, highlighting growing pressure on prediction platforms.

Minnesota has enacted what appears to be the first outright state ban on prediction markets, and the CFTC has already sued to block it, arguing federal law gives the agency exclusive authority over the markets.

Federal prosecutors say an Army Special Forces master sergeant used inside knowledge tied to the capture of Nicolás Maduro to place Polymarket bets that produced more than $400,000 in profit, turning a

Federal prosecutors say an Army special forces master sergeant used classified information tied to the capture of Nicolás Maduro to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket, in what authorities describe as the first US pred

Prosecutors say a U.S. soldier tied to the Maduro capture operation used confidential government information to place prediction market bets that generated more than $400,000 in profit.

A temporary restraining order has paused Arizona’s criminal case against prediction market company Kalshi, escalating a broader fight over whether states can prosecute firms that say they operate under federal oversight.

A surge in activity on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has collided with a basic problem: millions of users may owe taxes on winnings, but there is still no clear federal playbook for how to report them.

A U.S. appeals court has ruled that Kalshi's sports-related event contracts fall under federal commodities oversight, limiting states' ability to treat them like ordinary sports betting.

A bipartisan Senate proposal would bar public officials from placing prediction-market bets using nonpublic information, targeting a growing ethics and security gap around Polymarket and Kalshi.

Polymarket turned a Washington bar into a temporary ‘Situation Room,’ revealing how prediction markets are trying to move from niche online communities into visible political and cultural space.

As regional conflict escalated following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowed users to bet on the probability of nuclear weapon use in 2026, raising urgent ethical and regulatory questions about the financialization of catastrophe.

Dozens of AI-powered intelligence dashboards tracking the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have emerged, raising questions about the gamification of war and the reliability of open-source intelligence.

Kalshi and Polymarket are allowing users to bet millions on geopolitical events including the Iran conflict, raising ethical questions about profiting from war and death.