End of a Radiation Belt Pioneer
NASA's Van Allen Probe A, a 1,300-pound satellite that spent nearly 14 years mapping the dangerous radiation belts surrounding Earth, is expected to crash back to the planet on Tuesday, March 10. The U.S. Space Force's current best estimate places the reentry window during the early hours, though the exact time and location of debris impact cannot be precisely predicted.
The satellite has been gradually losing altitude since its instruments were deactivated in 2019, and its orbit has decayed to the point where atmospheric drag will pull it to a fiery end. While most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during reentry, some components made of heat-resistant materials like titanium and stainless steel may survive to reach the surface.
NASA has assessed the risk to people on the ground as extremely low, noting that the vast majority of Earth's surface is ocean, uninhabited land, or sparsely populated areas. The agency calculates a less than 1 in 10,000 chance that any surviving debris will strike a populated area, and no evacuation or shelter-in-place orders have been issued.
What the Van Allen Probes Discovered
The Van Allen Probes mission, originally called the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, launched in August 2012 as a pair of spacecraft designed to study the Van Allen radiation belts — zones of charged particles trapped by Earth's magnetic field. The mission was designed to last two years but far exceeded expectations, with the instruments operating until 2019.
The probes made several significant discoveries during their operational lifetime. They identified a previously unknown third radiation belt that appeared and disappeared over the course of weeks, challenging the longstanding assumption that Earth had only two stable belts. They also provided detailed measurements of how solar storms inject energy into the belts, causing them to swell and contract in ways that can damage satellites and endanger astronauts.
The data from the Van Allen Probes has been instrumental in developing better models for predicting radiation belt behavior, which has practical applications for protecting spacecraft electronics, planning astronaut activities during solar storms, and designing more resilient satellites. The mission's findings continue to be analyzed and published in scientific journals years after the instruments were turned off.





