A costly retail problem is becoming a data problem
Fresh food is where grocery stores lose some of their hardest money. Managers have to guess how many strawberries, avocados, cuts of meat, or prepared meals to stock before demand fades and spoilage takes over. Unlike packaged goods, fresh inventory is highly perishable, inconsistently measured, and often poorly tracked once it leaves the back room for the shelf.
Startup Afresh is betting that better forecasting can chip away at that waste. The company has raised $34 million in new funding, co-led by Just Climate and High Sage Ventures, and says its AI tools are already helping retailers cut shrink by 20% to 25% in fresh categories.
The funding round, reported by Fast Company, matters because grocery waste is not a niche inefficiency. The article estimates that U.S. grocery stores waste around four million tons of food annually, with a roughly $27 billion cost. That makes fresh inventory planning one of the more consequential and under-digitized operational problems in retail.
From spreadsheets and guesswork to demand modeling
Afresh’s origin story is almost a study in how analog many food-retail workflows remained until recently. When co-founders Matt Schwartz and Nathan Fenner began studying the problem, they found produce managers relying on printed spreadsheets, rough estimates, and pen-and-paper ordering processes.
That made some sense historically. Fresh foods are much harder to manage than shelf-stable products. Produce sold by weight can lose mass through evaporation. Self-checkout errors can distort what was actually purchased. Spoiled items may be thrown away without being properly recorded. Promotions, temperature, and shipping origin can all affect how quickly a product degrades.
Afresh’s software tries to pull those variables into a forecasting system. According to the source text, the company analyzes data from each grocer, in some cases drawing on hundreds of billions of transactions. Its models take into account pricing, promotions, shipment origin, weather, and even timing related to food-stamp distribution. Demand forecasts are then paired with optimization tools that suggest order quantities for each product.
The premise is simple: if stores can predict demand and perishability more accurately, they can order closer to what will actually sell.







