Gas turbines are getting harder to buy, pricier to build, and slower to deliver

A core piece of the power buildout is entering a supply squeeze

The market for gas turbines is tightening sharply, and the consequences are already visible in pricing, delivery schedules, and project planning. According to an April 1 report from Wood Mackenzie cited by Utility Dive, gas turbine prices are projected to rise to $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, representing a 195% increase from 2019 levels. Orders are expected to peak in 2026, just as developers race to lock in equipment for a major build cycle.

This is not a minor procurement inconvenience. Gas turbines sit at the center of many planned power investments, especially where utilities and developers want dispatchable capacity that can support rising electricity demand. If the machines become much more expensive and much slower to obtain, the effects ripple across generation economics, project timelines, and the broader debate over how to meet fast-growing load.

Demand is rising faster than manufacturing can comfortably absorb

Wood Mackenzie expects developers to pursue equipment for 63 gigawatts of gas capacity additions between 2026 and 2030. The same report links part of that urgency to data center demand, with electricity consumption from data centers projected to rise 96% between 2026 and 2031. In other words, the turbine crunch is being shaped not only by traditional utility planning but also by the infrastructure demands of a digital economy that is becoming more power-hungry.

Original equipment manufacturers are expanding manufacturing, but the supply chain is still constrained. Utility Dive reports that specialized labor shortages, bottlenecks in hot-section manufacturing, and trade-related cost pressures are all compounding the problem. Those are not the kinds of constraints that disappear quickly. They involve skilled labor, critical components, production capacity, and cross-border movement of materials, all of which can take years to rebalance.

That means the market is operating under a familiar but uncomfortable condition: strong demand paired with limited ability to increase supply in the near term. In such an environment, prices rise, buyers rush to secure scarce slots, and lead times stretch further.

Delivery times are becoming a strategic risk

One of the most striking details in the reporting is how long buyers now have to wait. A large turbine ordered today would likely take about five years to deliver, according to Bobby Noble, senior program manager of gas turbine research and development at the Electric Power Research Institute. Smaller turbines face shorter waits, but still substantial ones, with estimated delivery windows of 18 to 36 months.

Those delays matter because power planning depends on synchronization. Fuel arrangements, grid interconnection, site preparation, permitting, financing, and customer commitments all hinge on equipment showing up on time. When delivery shifts out by years, the turbine itself becomes a scheduling bottleneck for the entire project.

That also changes the risk profile for buyers. Developers may feel pressure to place orders earlier than they otherwise would, locking in capital commitments sooner and accepting more uncertainty about future costs and market conditions. Waiting, meanwhile, may mean losing a manufacturing slot or facing even higher prices later.

Geopolitics is adding another layer of pressure

The supply squeeze is not just about factory throughput. Shipping and trade risks are also part of the story. Utility Dive reports that restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to affect both the price and availability of gas turbine components. Noble noted that even if some turbines and parts are assembled in the U.S., Europe, or Asia, the raw materials and specialty inputs behind them still depend on globally distributed supply chains.

That point is crucial. Industrial systems may appear localized at the final assembly stage, but they often rely on upstream materials, coatings, and components sourced from multiple regions. A disruption in a maritime chokepoint or a jump in shipping costs can therefore feed directly into turbine pricing and availability, even for projects that appear geographically distant from the disruption.

For power developers, this means the turbine market is now exposed to a layered set of risks: demand pressure, manufacturing bottlenecks, labor shortages, trade costs, and geopolitical shipping uncertainty. None of those pressures alone would be trivial. In combination, they create a structurally tighter market.

Why the crunch matters beyond gas

The immediate story is about turbine procurement, but the implications stretch wider. Electricity systems are under mounting pressure to add reliable capacity quickly. If a key class of generation equipment becomes scarce and expensive, planners may be forced to rethink project timing, portfolio balance, or the assumptions underpinning load growth forecasts. Some projects may move forward at higher cost. Others may be delayed. Some may need alternative strategies altogether.

The Wood Mackenzie outlook suggests 2026 will be the peak ordering year, a sign that developers are trying to get ahead of a worsening squeeze. That behavior can itself intensify market tightness, as more buyers crowd into a limited supply window. In that sense, the turbine market has entered a feedback loop: the expectation of scarcity encourages ordering, and the rush to order makes scarcity more acute.

For the energy sector, the main takeaway is straightforward. Gas turbines are no longer a procurement item that can be assumed available on manageable timelines at predictable prices. They are becoming a strategic constraint. Any utility, developer, regulator, or large power customer planning around new gas capacity now has to factor in a much harsher market reality.

• Wood Mackenzie projects gas turbine prices will reach $600/kW by the end of 2027.
• That would mark a 195% increase from 2019 levels.
• Orders are expected to peak in 2026 as developers secure equipment for 63 GW of planned gas additions.
• Large turbines ordered now may take about five years to arrive.

This article is based on reporting by Utility Dive. Read the original article.