El Niño Officially Declared by NOAA
After months of anticipation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of El Niño today, June 11, 2026. The agency warns that this El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, with a 63% chance of intensifying to a 'very strong' status between November and January. If realized, it would rank among the largest El Niño events since 1950.
NOAA's declaration follows the Japanese Meteorological Agency, which made the call on Wednesday. Other countries and the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization are expected to follow suit. The determination was based on persistent above-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region—a key area of the equatorial Pacific used to track El Niño and La Niña—as well as wind and convection anomalies over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO is the biggest, most influential year-to-year climate variation on the planet, so both El Niño and its cold-phase counterpart, La Niña, have significant consequences for global temperatures and weather patterns.
During El Niño, the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean alters atmospheric circulation, leading to shifts in weather patterns worldwide. Typical impacts include increased rainfall in the southern United States and parts of South America, drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, and warmer winters in northern North America.
Potential Impacts: Supercharged Storms, Droughts, and Floods
According to NOAA, extreme climate and weather impacts are more likely during stronger El Niños. Over the past several weeks, meteorologists have warned that this event could lead to record-shattering temperatures, supercharged storms, regional droughts, wildfires, or floods, and global food shortages. A so-called 'super' El Niño would also have major implications for the climate crisis.
Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist for WFLA Tampa Bay, posted on X yesterday: 'Starting soon all months will be the warmest on record once El Niño kicks into high gear. Biggest impacts on global temp will be later this year into next year. It will set a new precedent… for a couple of years… until it’s broken again.'
Forecast and Intensification
The average of all projections by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, a seasonal forecast system that combines multiple climate models running across the U.S. and Canada, shows that El Niño will intensify into the winter, according to NOAA. The agency notes that even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes.
NOAA's El Niño advisory states: 'Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions.' The agency expects El Niño to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.
Global Temperature Implications
El Niño is known to contribute to global temperature increases. With the climate crisis already driving warming, this El Niño could push global temperatures to new records. Berardelli's comments underscore the potential for unprecedented heat. The combination of El Niño and human-caused climate change could lead to a cascade of extreme weather events worldwide.
Preparedness and Outlook
NOAA emphasizes that now is the time to prepare for potential impacts. Communities in regions prone to El Niño-related extremes should review emergency plans, especially for flooding, drought, and heatwaves. The agency will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as the event evolves.
As the world braces for what could be a historic El Niño, the declaration serves as a critical reminder of the power of natural climate variability and its intersection with a warming planet.
This article is based on reporting by Gizmodo. Read the original article.
Originally published on gizmodo.com
